West Virginia survives again to reach Big East final

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/13/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Da'Sean Butler scored 24 points and hauled in six rebounds, and the seventh-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers survived yet again with a 53-51 win over Notre Dame to advance to the Big East Tournament title game.

Kevin Jones added 10 points for the third-seeded Mountaineers (26-6), who are riding a five-game win streak heading into Saturday's final against 22nd- ranked and eighth-seeded Georgetown. WVU has been able to win several close games in a row, as the combined winning margin in its last three contests is just seven. The team beat Villanova by two in overtime to end the regular season before Butler banked a game-winning three at the buzzer in Thursday's thrilling win over Cincinnati.

Devin Ebanks and Joe Mazzulla both posted eight points for West Virginia, which is 7-0 this season at a neutral site and will have an opportunity to capture its first Big East Tournament title in school history.

Ben Hansbrough, brother of former Tar Heel Tyler, led a late Notre Dame (23-11) charge and had a team-high 17 points in all, but the Irish failed in their attempt to advance to their first tourney final since joining the Big East in the mid-1990s. Luke Harangody came off the bench and ended with 10 points but did not have a large impact on the outcome.

Notre Dame's season-high six-game win streak came to an end after Tory Jackson's potential game-winning three in the final moments hit the front of the rim.

The Irish trailed by 10, 41-31, with eight minutes to play, but seventh-seeded Notre Dame put together a rally.

Harangody went a combined 5-for-5 from the line on the team's next two offensive possessions, and Hansbrough sank consecutive three-pointers around the four-minute mark to pull the Irish to within 48-45.

Jackson's pair from the line made it a one-point game moments later, but Jones capped two straight successful WVU possessions with two free throws for a 52-47 Mountaineer lead with two minutes to play.

Hansbrough kept Notre Dame within two, 53-51, with 47.4 ticks left on a pair from the line, and Butler missed what would have been a game-sealing three- pointer.

Harangody grabbed the rebound with 12 seconds left and, as Notre Dame was without any timeouts, sprinted up the court and dished it to Jackson, whose three-point attempt grazed the front rim. The Irish's Tyrone Nash grabbed the offensive board but had the ball stripped before he could get a shot off, and time expired to give WVU the win.

A low-scoring first half saw the Mountaineers come away with a 23-20 lead after a Hansbrough three-pointer was disallowed at the buzzer.

West Virginia increased its lead to six, 29-23, on a pair of Jones baskets in the early moments of the second half, and the Mountaineers later scored nine of 12 points to grab a 41-31 edge with just under 10 minutes to go.

Game Notes

Notre Dame advanced to Friday's semifinal by beating Seton Hall on Wednesday and Pittsburgh on Thursday...The Irish still lead the all-time series, 25-11, and had beaten the Mountaineers on the road during the regular season...WVU was the lone team out of the four that earned a double-bye to post a win in the tourney...The Mountaineers outrebounded Notre Dame, 32-19...WVU shot 50 percent from the field, compared to just 34.1 percent for the Irish...The Mountaineers advanced to the final for the first time since 2005.

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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

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What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

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Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

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“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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