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09/08/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Before I get started here, let me state that I was a big proponent of the wild card when it was implemented back in 1995, and I am still in favor of it today. In fact, I am on the side of those who wish to expand the playoffs even further in adding another wild card team from each league.
But that, I guess, is a topic for another day.
The wild card has given us competitive races down the stretch in just about all of the 15 years it has been in place. It has kept more teams involved later than they would have been, while making for some compelling baseball heading into the final week, which, let's be honest, is all you can really ask for.
However, if things play out the way I think they will over the final three- plus weeks of the regular season, we could have a problem. The two best races in baseball are shaping up to be the American League East and the National League West, but all four teams could get into the playoffs anyway thanks to the wild card.
The juice has been taken out of the division races, especially in the AL, where it is a foregone conclusion that the loser between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East is going to get in. They are 1-2 for the best record in baseball and will likely trade the top spot a number of times over the next couple of weeks.
How awesome would that race have been 16 years ago, had they both been fighting for one spot?
While it may not be as pronounced in the NL, I still see the wild card going to either San Diego or San Francisco. Of course, the division race between them is also going to come down to the final weekend, but again, who cares, knowing they both could get in anyway?
So where is the intrigue going to be down the stretch?
I know the National League East is tight at the moment, but the Phillies are now healthy and with the three pitchers atop that rotation, that division is over. Don't be surprised when the season ends on October 3rd and the Phils are the National League leader with the biggest divisional lead.
Atlanta, which fell a half-game back in the NL East on Tuesday, leads the Wild Card chase by a game over the San Francisco Giants. I don't like the way the Braves have looked over the last month, though, and I think them relinquishing their division lead on Tuesday was just the beginning. I see a free-fall coming.
The American League Central could come down to the wire - because it does every year - and give us some excitement, but in reality all the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox are battling for is the right to get eliminated by either the Yankees or Rays in the first round.
Is there anyone out there who doesn't think the Rays or Yanks will be coming out of the AL?
Forget an AL West that's been over since the All-Star break, despite the fact that the Rangers are playing as awful as any team in the league at the moment. The Reds' six-game lead on the Cardinals should also hold up in the National League, given who they have to play the rest of the way.
I would love to see the Cards get involved in the wild card mix, because if they get into the playoffs I have a feeling they could be scary. As I write this they sit 5 1/2 back, though only four back in the loss column.
There is one team, though, that can throw a wrench into all of this and that team is the Ghost of Septembers Past - the Colorado Rockies, who are in the midst of another late-season surge and have climbed within 4 1/2 games of both the NL West and the wild card.
That said, Colorado has been so inconsistent this season, I just can't envision them making a run here. Then again, I did not think they would rip off 13 wins in their last 14 games to force a one-game playoff in 2007 and definitely did not think they had another run in them in June of last season when they were 12 games under .500 and 15 1/2 games out of first place.
By the way, you may disregard all this when in a couple of weeks I am writing over the last weekend of the season about the wild free-for-all that is going to be taking place for the NL Wild Card.
I hope that is the case, but I just don't see it playing out like that.
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Pass-happy Big 12 boasts nation's top 3 rushers >>
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Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Red Wings have signed veteran
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Super Bowl XLIII is now set, the Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers will meet each other on February 1st in Tampa's Raymond James Stadium to battle it out for the coveted Lombardi Trophy. The game kicks off at 6:00pm ET on NBC with announcers Al Michaels and John Madden covering the on-field action. Super Bowl XLIII betting odds at online bookmaker MySportsbook.com have the Steelers listed as an early -6.5 against the spread favorite.Super Bowl XLIII Betting Odds
Pittsburgh earned their passage to the big game by beating their division rival, the Baltimore Ravens, 23-14 in yesterday's AFC Championship Game. The Steelers jumped on Baltimore early, building a 13-0 first half lead, and never let up on their way to a fairly easy win. Although the Ravens did close to within two points in the fourth quarter, it never appeared as if they had enough offense to pull off the upset.
The Steelers dominating defense held Baltimore to a total of 198 yards while allowing them to convert just three third downs in 13 attempts. Pittsburgh also forced quarterback Joe Flacco into three interceptions, one of which safety Troy Polamalu returned fourty yards for a touchdown.
The Cardinals, by far the playoff team with the longest odds to reach Super Bowl XLIII, did so yesterday with a 32-25 upset of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship. Arizona charged out of the gates and built a 24-6 halftime lead that had the Eagles venerable defense reeling. Quarterback Kurt Warner and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald did most of the damage, connecting on three first half touchdowns.
Arizona, however, could not sustain their momentum and the Eagles took a 25-24 with 10:45 left to play in the fourth. The Cardinals, with the franchise's first Super Bowl appearance hanging in the balance, mounted a fourteen play, 72 yard touchdown drive that consumed 7:52 off the clock. Warner hit running back Tim Hightower on a short screen for the go-ahead, game clinching score that will forever live in Cardinal infamy.
MySportsbook.com's Super Bowl XLIII Betting Odds:
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-110), Over 46.5 (-110), -260 (Money line)
Arizona Cardinals +6.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-110), +220 (Money line)
Matt Foust won both of his conference championship plays yesterday and he is ready to serve up plenty of Super Bowl action. Each individual play costs $15.00, however, MySportsbook.com recommends purchasing Matt's NFL Playoff Package which includes all of Matt's Super Bowl props and picks from just $45.00.
Get free Super Bowl XLIII Betting from top rated online sportsbook MySportsbook.com. Mysportsbook.com online Super Bowl betting with credit cards
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