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03/16/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The margin of victory was scant once again, but all Lookin At Lucky does is win races.
The two-year-old champion made his 2010 debut a winning one taking the Rebel Stakes last Saturday at Oaklawn Park by only a head over Noble's Promise. The 6-5 favorite got up in the final jump for his sixth victory in seven lifetime starts, with only one coming by more than a length.
The Rebel was the third straight race Lookin At Lucky tangled with Noble's Promise and the Bob Baffert-trained colt has bested his arch-rival each and every time. This one was most impressive, especially since the son of Smart Strike might not have even finished the race due to a scary moment down the backstretch.
As Dublin, the 7-5 second choice, was ranging up from behind Lookin At Lucky in the four-path, jockey Garrett Gomez (in the three-path) chose to keep pace with his challenger by pushing his colt forward as well. Unfortunately, Gomez rode his horse right on the heels of Noble's Promise, who was sitting in third just ahead of Lookin At Lucky, and had to pull back on the reins, losing a good two-lengths in the process.
Last year's Eclipse-Award winner regrouped to wear down his adversary at the wire, ending all speculation that he would not be able to handle true dirt after six straight races over synthetics.
Lookin At Lucky will now try to duplicate the feats of the last three Kentucky Derby champions (Mine That Bird, Big Brown and Street Sense) by winning the Run for the Roses with only two three-year-old prep races.
As for Noble's Promise, there's no shame in running second in his initial start of the year and on conventional dirt. He easily rebuffed Dublin's challenge at the top of the stretch and would have won if the race was a tad shorter. The bay colt can and will be able to handle a distance of ground, which is the one knock on the son of Cuvee.
His dam side is loaded with long distance turf stakes winners, which should assist him in his quest for glory on the first Saturday in May. His mother, The Devil's Trick, is a half-sister to New Economy, who won the 2002 La Prevoyante at 1 1/2-miles, and his second dam, Sunyata, is a half-sister to Battle Creek Girl, who produced multiple graded stakes horses, including Parade Ground, winner of the 1 1/4-mile Lexington Stakes at Belmont Park.
Dublin, the third-place horse, should improve next time out after being the recipient of an ill-timed ride from Corey Nakatani. After closing stoutly in the Southwest Stakes in February, the chestnut son of Afleet Alex had to make two moves in the Rebel despite being carried five-wide around the first turn.
First, Nakatani forced him into a very fast 23 2/5 second-quarter and then parlayed that into a four-wide sweep on the final turn. Come the homestretch, it was obvious the horse had little left to stay with the likes of Lookin At Lucky and Noble's Promise.
With a better ride in the Arkansas Derby, Dublin should be better equipped to compete with Noble's Promise (and maybe Lookin At Lucky if that one returns to Oaklawn Park), but questions about his ability to go nine furlongs will surely be an issue.
The final time for the 1 1/16-mile race was 1:43 seconds flat, 3/5ths of a second faster than the fillies ran in the Honeybee Stakes an hour earlier. Moreover, it was Lookin At Lucky's and Noble Promise's first starts of the season so there is definitely room for improvement. Either way, these two colts have what it takes to be serious Kentucky Derby threats.
AN UNFORGETTABLE PHOTO
Down at Oldsmar, Florida, Odysseus and Schoolyard dreams battled to the wire in the Tampa Bay Derby with a nose separating the two colts. At first glance, it appeared the five, Schoolyard Dreams held off the late surge from number seven Odysseus, but when the numbers flashed on the tote board, it read seven over five.
The margin of victory was an amazing turnaround for Odysseus, who came into the Grade 3 event off a 15-length win in an allowance race. Even more remarkable than getting his nose in front at the wire was how he pulled off the victory in the first place.
Hard-ridden throughout the run down the backstretch, the lightly-raced son of Malibu Moon was left for dead after Schoolyard Dreams swept by him around the final turn. Even longshot Gleam of Hope passed the 2-1 second choice at the top of the stretch.
Surprisingly, Odysseus found another gear and jockey Rajiv Maragh split horses inside the final sixteenth to win by the smallest of margins. The final time was the same 1:44 1/5 he ran in his previous race and only one tick slower than Rule ran in winning the Sam F. Davis.
Odysseus has license to progress as the year moves along, but he's still very green at this stage of his career. And if he goes to Kentucky without another prep race, it's extremely doubtful he'll be up to the challenge to win the nation's most prestigious event.
As for Super Saver, his 2010 debut should prove valuable in his continued development despite finishing third. Remember, he hung on gamely through the stretch losing by only a half-length when it appeared his day was through.
Schoolyard Dreams proved as the fourth choice in the betting that he cannot be taken lightly. On the other hand, this could be the end of the line for local hero Uptowncharlybrown after a disappointing fifth-place finish. With very little graded earnings, it's doubtful he'll remain on the Kentucky Derby trail.
Still, he wasn't disgraced in the loss since he was checked by Super Saver going into the first turn and had little running room on the rail through the stretch. Expect a much better performance in his next outing, especially if his connections do the smart thing and replace jockey Daniel Centeno.
JOE TALAMO STEALS SAN FELIPE
There were a lot of questions going into the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe Stakes concerning Sidney's Candy's ability to wire the field, and after the race, the subject matter still hasn't been answered due to Joe Talamo's fantastic ride aboard the chestnut colt.
American Lion and Interactif failed to mount any sort of early challenge to Sidney's Candy so Talamo was allowed to ration out Candy Ride's speed through much of the race with incredibly slow fractions of 24 1/5 and 48 2/5. After six-furlongs had been run in a pedestrian 1:13 2/5 (a 25 second third- quarter), the race was all but over. The John Sadler-trained three-year-old hung on for an easy half-length victory over Interactif with the Robert B. Lewis winner Caracortado finishing third.
It will be interesting to see if Talamo and Sidney's Candy will be able to control the pace in the Santa Anita Derby the way they did this past Saturday. If so, there's a good chance he'll be able to win going nine-furlongs. If not, he won't be a significant player at Churchill Downs come May 1.
As for the rest of the field, Interactif fared very well in his first Pro-Ride experience and should be a force in the rematch. Caracortado, ran effectively, but wasn't up to the task after being victimized by the slow pace.
Fourth-place finisher American Lion is definitely not a two-turn horse on Pro- Ride while Dave in Dixie proved he is simply not good enough.
THE NEW JEFF FRANK TOP 12
1) Lookin At Lucky; 2) Alphie's Bet; 3) Eskendereya; 4) Noble's Promise; 5) Make Music for Me; 6) Dublin; 7) Super Saver; 8) Awesome Act; 9) Rule; 10) Stay Put; 11) Connemara; 12) Radiohead.
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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My fellow Americans, as tempting as it may be to don the coat and HD-ready tie in order to deliver this State of the Game address before the cameras, I know better. As Brad Paisley sings on his latest album, "I'm so much cooler online."
The ideas for this annual essay to kick off the MySportsbook.com college football betting preview flowed like frat-house beer, which is to say they were cheap and spilled all over the floor. The 2007 season will be better than 2007, if only because there will be more of it. A year ago, the NCAA Football Rules Committee made two rule changes in the interest of speeding up the game. These changes went over like Kobe burgers at a vegan banquet.
To its credit, the rules committee rectified its mistakes. This season the clock once again will start when a kickoff is received, rather than when it is kicked, and the clock will not start so quickly on a change of possession.
However, kickoffs have been moved back five yards, to the 30, which will force more returns. (Thus forcing the clock to run. Clever, huh?) Special teams might decide a lot of games, because coaching strategy will come straight out of another new Paisley lyric (almost), I'd like to check you for kicks.
Paisley sings with a twang, which is why he's appropriate for this college football season. The sun coming up over the 2007 college football betting lines season rises from the south. It's a Southern football world. As the Southeastern Conference begins its 75th year, the power shift is noticeable.
Eight-figure budgets, glamorous settings -- and that's just for the head coaches. The SEC has four coaches who have won national championships -- the greatest aggregation of coaching know-how since Eddie Robinson dined alone.
Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer have given lie to the idea that a conference championship game is too daunting a hurdle on the road to No. 1. In six of the past 10 seasons, the national champions played and won a conference championship game -- three of the six (Tennessee, 1998; LSU, 2003; Florida, 2007) from the SEC.
There will be more of the same this season, if the preseason prognostications are correct. Six SEC teams are in the preseason coaches' poll, more than from any other conference. Only one conference has talent so deep that a team with 15 returning starters, including the best quarterback in the league, from an eight-win season is considered an afterthought. That may speak more to Kentucky's losing legacy than to the wisdom of the predictions, but there you have it. And seriously, keep an eye on Wildcats QB Andre' Woodson.
The reach of the South extends all the way to No. 1. Take a look at the team that is a consensus pick to win the national championship. The quarterback is from Shreveport. The best wide receiver is from Nashville. The top recruit is from New Orleans.
So what's the campus doing in Los Angeles? Hey, it is the University of Southern California.
USC lost two Pacific-10 Conference games a year ago, the first time that had happened in five seasons, and university officials withstood the urge to form blue-ribbon panels to unearth the cause of such a disaster. Instead, the Trojans gathered themselves and routed Michigan, 32-18, in the Rose Bowl.
USC's losses at Oregon State and at UCLA last year should have given pause to those who question the Pac-10's football prowess (such as, without naming names, L.M. from Baton Rouge). The league only got deeper this season; Dennis Erickson is taking over an Arizona State team that never quite got out of its own way under his predecessor, Dirk Koetter.
Erickson will resume his quest to become the first coach to win a national championship at two schools. Both he and Spurrier, now in his third season at South Carolina, returned to college football at schools with lower profiles than where they won their titles.
That isn't the case for the third coach looking for the national championship double. You may have missed this, but NASA reported the astronauts on the space shuttle last spring made contact with what can only be described as beings from another galaxy.
The leader of the aliens said, "We come in peace," followed by, "So how do you think Nick Saban will do at Alabama?"
The public is reacting to the new Crimson Tide coach as if he is the Barry Bonds of college football -- beloved at home for what his fans believe he is going to do, hated on the road for his intimidating attitude and for what his detractors believe he did (bend NCAA recruiting rules). I made this comparison from the dais at a charity dinner in Mobile, Ala., last month, and the chill that washed over me didn't come from the air conditioning.
Saban will attempt to prove that he can remake in Tuscaloosa what he built in Baton Rouge, much like another member of the national championship fraternity. Bobby Bowden is attempting to remake at Florida State what he built at, um, Florida State. Bowden rebuilt his offensive staff, bringing in four new coaches led by Saban's former offensive coordinator, Jimbo Fisher, to jump-start an offense that has been dead for a couple of years.
The Atlantic Coast Conference is expected to show new signs of life, too. That is said with no disrespect toward last season's champion, Wake Forest, which provided one of the best story lines of 2007. The Demon Deacons begin this season in their customary position, overshadowed by the Virginia Techs, Miamis and Florida States.
It's not that Wake will find it difficult to duplicate its success in 2007 as much as the feeling that success engendered. Surprising success is the narcotic of sport. It never feels quite so euphoric the next time. Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese has figured this out. He refers to 2007, when a league looked down upon by fans and foes alike took three undefeated teams into November, as "Cinderella."
The fairy tale may be over, but the Big East has four genuine Heisman Trophy candidates in Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm, West Virginia tailback Steve Slaton and quarterback Pat White, and Rutgers tailback Ray Rice. Rutgers, as did Wake Forest and, of course, Boise State, proved last season that the have-nots in college football occasionally have quite a lot.
The Broncos' rousing 43-42 overtime victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl has raised the profile of all schools in conferences that don't get automatic BCS bids. This season, TCU and Hawaii are the preseason favorites to burst through the BCS doors and earn an at-large bid. The Warriors return 14 starters from an 11-3 team, including quarterback Colt Brennan.
Brennan not only broke the single-season record with 58 touchdown passes in 2007, but he also led Division I-A in passing efficiency (186.0). The senior is expected to contend for the Heisman Trophy, and neither his success nor the rise of his team should come as any surprise in the 2007 season.
After all, Hawaii is the southernmost team in the country.
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