05/11/2008 - Ponte Vedra Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sergio Garcia parred the first playoff hole, the famous island green at 17, to defeat Paul Goydos Sunday and win The Players Championship.
The win was Garcia's seventh on the PGA Tour, but first since the 2005 Booz Allen Classic. The victory was his biggest to date since this is called by some, "the fifth major."
Garcia has enjoyed close calls in majors, but never broke through. There was the famous debut to the world at the 1999 PGA Championship and the final-round pairing with Tiger Woods at the 2002 U.S. Open at Bethpage.
Last year was perhaps the most painful. He had a chance to win the British Open Championship, but missed a six-footer for par on the 72nd hole, then fell to Padraig Harrington in a playoff.
Sunday gave Garcia his biggest win.
"It's been a lot of work," acknowledged Garcia. "I feel like I've been playing well, unfortunately I hadn't been able to come around and win. Everything was so hard. I'm thrilled the week is over and I managed to come out on top."
Garcia posted a sensational, one-under 71 on Sunday at the Stadium Course at the TPC at Sawgrass. Under windy conditions, Goydos only managed a two-over 74 and the pair tied in regulation at five-under 283.
They headed to the 17th tee to begin the extra session.
Goydos went first and hit a wedge short into the water. Garcia stepped up and hit his wedge tee ball left of the hole. With the contour of the green and the wind gusts, Garcia's ball rolled down to just inside five feet.
"It ballooned a little bit more than the other one," said Goydos, referring to his shot in regulation. "I saw it kind of hurting and thought uh-oh. You can hit nine-iron over the green, or you can hit wedge short. That's the way it is sometimes."
Goydos played his third from the drop area and hit a great shot to 14 feet. He missed the bogey putt, allowing Garcia to three-putt from four feet, five inches for the win.
Garcia did miss his birdie putt, but was doing no more than cozying it down to the hole. He tapped in for the victory.
"I manage to hit it at the right time," said Garcia, who pocketed $1.7 million for the win. "It was a really tough day. He caught a little gust of wind in the playoff."
For Goydos, this would have been the third PGA Tour victory and by far his biggest. He came up short, but was practical
"Sergio played better than everybody else," acknowledged Goydos. "Look at the stats. That's good that that's rewarded."
Jeff Quinney shot a two-under 70 and would have been in the playoff if not for a bogey at the 18th. He took third at minus-four, three shots better than Briny Baird, who shot an even-par 72 on Sunday.
Stephen Ames, the 2006 winner, also shot an even-par 72 and came in fifth at even-par 288.
Goydos began the final round with a one-shot lead and occupied the top spot on the leaderboard through much of Sunday.
Goydos struggled a bit on the front nine with three bogeys, but a 50-foot birdie putt at the fourth helped offset the big scores. Goydos pitched in for birdie from short of the 10th green, then two holes later, he knocked his approach from the right rough to three feet to set up birdie.
Garcia, who netted two bogeys and a birdie through the opening nine, holed a seven-footer for birdie at 11 and a 17-footer for birdie at 12. He hit his tee ball over the green at 13 and made bogey, which dropped him three behind Goydos.
The young Spaniard holed a miraculous 50-footer for birdie at 14 to get within two of Goydos' lead, but trouble loomed for Goydos. He three-putted for a bogey from 40 feet at the 14th, then fell into a tie for the lead thanks to a missed nine-footer for par at the 15th.
Goydos hit a good five-iron to the left fringe with his second at the par-five 16th. He hit his third in close and tapped in for the birdie and a one-shot advantage.
Quinney fell off the pace when he caught a flier lie in the rough at 18. He could not save par from the back bunker.
Garcia was in the rough too, but laid up short with his second. He pitched to six feet and calmly holed the par putt, not looking like the man ranked 131st in putting on the PGA Tour.
Garcia would now have a chance if Goydos stumbled on his way into the clubhouse, which happened thanks to an errant drive at 18.
"I felt like he could get up and down on 18," said Garcia, who became the first European to win this title since Sandy Lyle in 1987. "Fortunately for me, he didn't."
Goydos laid up with his second and admittedly "chunked" his third. He had 18 feet for the win, but the ball never threatened the hole. It was off to the playoff and Garcia's victory.
"It's a lot of hard work starting to pay off," said Garcia. "That's the most important thing."
Brett Quigley (71), Ernie Els (72), Ben Crane (72) and Tom Lehman (74) shared sixth place at plus-one.
Defending champion Phil Mickelson was in the hunt after the third round, but played poorly on Sunday. He shot a six-over 78 and finished in a group tied for 21st at four-over 292.
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Huskers' Lucky hospitalized for undisclosed reason
LINCOLN, Neb. -- Nebraska running back Marlon Lucky was hospitalized Monday for undisclosed reasons after Lincoln police responded to a call at his residence.
The Nebraska athletic department said in a release Monday that Lucky was admitted Sunday night.
MySportsbook.com has the Cornhuskers listed at +2500 to win the BCS National Championship odds.
A nursing supervisor at the hospital said all questions about Lucky were being referred to the athletic department. The athletic department said there would be no further comment from the department or Lucky's family.
A Lincoln Police spokesman said officers responded to a call at Lucky's residence 11:30 p.m. Sunday. The spokesman said he didn't know Lucky's condition at the time he was taken to the hospital.
Lucky, from North Hollywood, Calif., started six games last season as a sophomore and was the team's second-leading rusher, with 728 yards and six touchdowns. He also caught 32 passes for 383 yards. He averaged 19.1 yards on eight kickoff returns.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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