Big win doesn't alter Moore's '1 game' focus

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/09/2010 -

BOISE, Idaho (AP) -If the impact of Boise State's big victory over Virginia Tech ever sinks in to Kellen Moore's brain, don't expect the soft-spoken quarterback to veer from the team's modesty mantra.

Like his coach and teammates, Moore simply refuses to use the latest win as leverage or proof the No. 3 Broncos should be taken seriously in any national title conversation.

As fans, sports writers and college football analysts stoked the debate in the wake of Boise State's thrilling victory Monday night, Moore stuck to an all-too-familiar script around Idaho's capitol city: Focus only on the things you can control on the field.

``It was one game, one week and we still have a lot of football to deal with,'' said Moore, who threw three touchdown passes, including a late game-winner, in Monday night's 33-30 victory at FedEx Field in Landover, Md.

``We can't even be thinking about a bowl game right now. We just aren't going to be talking about that for a long, long time,'' he said.

It's as if Moore was reciting from a memo passed out by coach Chris Petersen on the plane trip back to Idaho.

During the last two years, as the Broncos pursued back-to-back undefeated regular seasons and BCS respectability, Petersen has refused to engage in 'what-if' postseason scenarios or speculation his team deserved to play on college football's biggest stages.

This year, Petersen has altered his tone slightly, suggesting the Broncos have an opportunity to prove themselves as legitimate title contenders.

But he refuses to take the bait when asked if Boise State deserves a shot at the title or if the system is skewed against schools from conferences without an automatic BCS bid.

He still refers to his team as a bunch of underdogs.

``I just don't think you can worry about all of that right now,'' Moore said. ``We still need to play like we've got a chip on our shoulder. We still need to have that edge ... and the feeling like we're never going to satisfy everyone until we reach our goals at the end of the season.''

His caution could also be tied to the miscues and mistakes that nearly cost the Broncos on Monday night.

Despite his poise and decision-making down the stretch, Moore knows his performance was far from perfect. He overshot a few open receivers, forced a handful of throws in tight coverage and failed to spot some open receivers downfield.

It's also a safe bet the coaching staff will preach ball security and penalties. The Broncos have plenty of time to focus on those fundamentals: Their next game is a week away, a Sept. 18 visit to Wyoming.

Against Virginia Tech, the Broncos lost two fumbles and were penalized 11 times for 105 yards, including a running-into-the-kicker infraction late in the third quarter that gave the Hokies new life. On the ensuing play, Virginia Tech coaches decided to go for it on fourth down. The Hokies capitalized when quarterback Tyrod Taylor fired a 28-yard TD pass to give the Hokies a 27-26 lead.

Moore knows his team needs to avoid those kinds of flubs.

``There are obviously a lot of things for us to clean up,'' Moore said. ``A lot of it is just execution. Mechanically, I was a bit off.

``But the important thing is we were able to execute down the stretch in a critical situation. But that's football, the game changes, there are lots of momentum changes. In a game like that, it's all about how you respond,'' he said.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.